Saturday, October 06, 2007

Iran Draws Up Plans to Bomb Israel

Mark Weiss of the Jerusalem Post is predicting that war between Israel and Iran is imminent. He says he has been predicting this for a long while. His latest prediction appears to be a response to an article by AP reporter, Ali Akbar Dareini, in Tehran. The most significant part of Weiss's article, I think, is his prediction that the war between Israel and Iran will draw in Pakistan. He does not elaborate on the reasons for that and how it would work, but he states what seems ever more evident, that Pakistan enshrines many dangerous contradictions. One wonders if a single spark could create a devastating conflagration, devastating to the Pakistani people, yes, but also to the rest of the world, for this country has the bomb.

The main elements of Dareini’s article are summarized by Tom below, followed by Weiss’s comments. [Click on the title for a link to Dareini's whole article ]

Associated Press

"The deputy commander of Iran's air force said Wednesday that plans have been drawn up to bomb Israel if the Jewish state attacks Iran"
"The announcement came amid rising tensions in the region, with the United States calling for a new round of U.N. sanctions against Iran over its disputed nuclear program and Israeli planes having recently overflown, and perhaps even attacked, Iranian ally Syria."
"Iran has said in the past that Israel would be Iran's first retaliatory target if attacked by the United States"
"Many in the region fear Israel could launch airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities to prevent it from building a nuclear weapon."
"A top Revolutionary Guards commander said this week that Americans could be found all around Iran and that they were legitimate Iranian targets if the U.S. takes military action."

Email from Mark Weiss:
In the last four years, I have twice argued that a confrontation with Tehran is imminent. This is because the United States will not tolerate any person or entity to have any say over the supply of oil. Because the Middle East supplies the rest of the world, any disruption in the supply of oil affects the United States economy.

Although the Iraq invasion is not won militarily, the United States gained a valuable base in the heart of the Middle East. This was the most significant act of the Bush-Rumsfeld presidency. To prevent the negative repercussions from an imminent pull back from Iraq, the United States will not allow Tehran to gain any foothold in Iraq or its surrounding.

However, what policy makers do not understand is that a decisive response to an attack on Tehran will come from reneged Pakistani military officers. Pakistan is on the verge of disintegration. Regardless of the Bhutto-General alliance and return to pseudo democracy, the crux of the Pakistani society and military remain fiercely anti-American. To state that the Pakistani nuclear arsenal is under safe and secure control of the American trained and loyal Generals is to argue that death only comes at an old age. Yes it does, but young people die too.

The Pakistani people have taken refuge in the arms of fatalistic religious groups who have perverted the teachings of the Prophet. This refuge is fueled by the growing resentment that the Pakistani people feel due to lack of any social mobility. For the first time in its young history, the very religion that the nation was founded on is being used in a vicious struggle to challenge the power and prestige of the Generals who dominate the country.

The religious groups have run enough roots in the Pakistani society and will not be forced to change course because of pseudo democracy. For too long they have sat on the sidelines and allowed the Generals to use them as bulldogs.

Thus, a confrontation of decisive nature is imminent on both sides of Afghan border. Afghanistan will suffer enormously if such a bleak scenario happens. The Afghan leaders must prepare for a prolonged disruption of channels of commerce both in the east and west side of the country.

M. R. Weiss

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