The news that does not lie

We are now in the period in which the “surge” in particular and the progress of the war in Iraq generally is to be evaluated in Washington. But without embellishment, some statistics will tell a tale that the American administration are unlikely to mention:
• American military killed in Iraq in August, 85 (up from 36 in the same month in 2003);
• Iraq civilians killed in the same month, 2,500;
• civilians “newly displaced” in August, 80,000. [NYTimes 9/4/07].
Whatever the rhetoric will be, the numbers tell a tragic story.

And if we want similarly empirical indications of how it’s going in Afghanistan and Pakistan, consider these conditions:
• several hundred Pakistani troops are now being held hostage (kidnapped) by pro-Taliban tribesmen in Pakistan’s tribal areas;
• and just today [9/4/07] two different bomb blasts in the garrison city of Rawalpindi (“a military zone”) have killed more than two dozen people. Click on the title for this article.

Not only are the political figures creating an unsettled situation in Pakistan, the military – always before the one stable and stabilizing institution in the country -- seems unready and unprepared for an insurgency posed against it from within. The military have been so focused on India and the dispute over Kashmir that they have failed to notice that the Islamists in the tribal areas whom they have cultivated as cannon fodder for war with India have turned against them. They have not minded that the Islamists were attacking folks inside Afghanistan, but now they are attacking folks in Pakistan – not only civilians but the military itself in its own territory.


Comment:

Anonymous said...
Prof. Canfield - Do you think that this could represent a real break in the alliance between the Army as an institutional power and the jihadis in the FATA, even in Kashmir?
Also, to what degree do you think the Pashtun officer corps in the Pakistani Army is politicized and Islamicized? For instance, would a sustained offensive in the FATA by the Pakistani Army be viewed as an ethnic affront by Pashtun officers? I have read in Jamestown that Pashtuns constitute "between 15-22% among officers and between 20-25% among the regular rank-and-file". What is your sense on this issue?
Jamestown article: http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2370188

Tequila

Response to Tequila:

As to the second question, I think there is no doubt that the offensive in the tribal areas did create a crisis for many in the military -- certainly it did for the Pushtuns in the army, who are well represented in the army, as the Jamestown aritlce by Abbass indicates. We can only feel for how horrible it must be to be asked to turn your weapons against your own relatives and friends.

As to the first question, it seems evident that there are many worrisome fissures in Pakistan society now. The army and the Islamists fought in the Red mosque, Islamabad, and the break seems all the more evident in the recent attack in Rawalpindi.

Thanks for your comment.