Thursday, November 19, 2009

Steve Coll on The price of "failure" in the Afghanistan/Pakistan war

Steve Coll, whose understanding of the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan has to be considered superb, has published in the Atlantic an estimate of the consequences of our “failing” in the war against that Taliban and AlQaeda. Anything he says needs to be considered carefully. Here is a fine statement of the implications of giving up or otherwise “failing” in the South Asian war. This, he says, is what would happen:

The Nineties Afghan Civil War on Steroids:

Momentum for a Taliban Revolution in Pakistan:

Increased Islamist Violence Against India, Increasing the Likelihood of Indo-Pakistani War:

Increased Al Qaeda Ambitions Against Britain and the United States:

He concludes this last section with the following:
"As 9/11 and the current creativity of the regionally focussed Taliban amply demonstrate, their potential should not be complacently underestimated. If they did get through and score another lucky goal, it is easy to imagine the prospective consequences for American politics and for the constitution."

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